- Safiu Kehinde
A Nigerian academia and lecturer of Political Science at the Uthman Dan Fodio University, Prof. Sarafa Ogundiya, has talked down threat by the United States President, Donald Trump, who vowed to carry out military attack on Nigeria over the alleged Christian genocide in the country.
NPO Reported that Trump had last week issued the threat following his inclusion of Nigeria of the list of Countries of Particular Concern (CPC).
The development had since sparked mixed reactions from members of the public, experts, stakeholders, and prominent organisations across the country.
Also reacting to the development in an interview with NPO Reports on Monday, Ogundiya admitted that the US declaration is expected, considering the daily loss of lives of Nigerians across the country on account of bandits and terrorists attacks.
He however noted that the crisis in Nigeria is multidimensional and cannot be categorised as a genocide.
While faulting the Nigerian government over the lenient approach towards solving the crisis, the university don however dismissed Trump’s threat to carry out military action against Nigeria.
He labelled the US President’s threat an empty threat, citing the difficult and complex nature of Nigeria’s insecurity issue.
“The declaration is expected because of the enormity of the lives lost every day. And then the approach of the Nigerian government.
“Domestically, the country is suffering from economic woes, and the leadership of the country are not really doing something about it.
“The insecurity situation of the country is also tearing the country apart and it seems the current leadership has a kind of attitude that is not really commendable in terms of the approach in solving the crisis.
“However, the crisis is multidimensional. Whether the killings could be categorised as genocide is a different thing entirely. It may not be sufficient to categorise it as genocide.
“However, if you see the degree of lives that are being lost every day, particularly on the Christian side, it calls for serious attention on the part of the government.
“But the threat, to me, is an empty threat. Empty threat in the sense that strategically, it might be difficult because I don’t know the modus of operation that the US will adopt to come to Nigeria and attack terrorists.” He said.
Ogundiya further questioned how Trump intend to identify and fight the terrorists who have spread across most regions of the country in clusters and also under different groups.
“If you look at what he is saying that he is waging war, is he waging war against the government or you are waging war against Nigeria. So, how do you come into it?
“How do you identify the so-called terrorists because the terrorists in Nigeria does not have just one camp. You go to the Middlebelt, they are there.
“I’m currently in Zamfara now. The place is littered with so many terrorists’ camps. We were just praying as we were coming to this place. If you go to Katsina, there are so many terrorist camps.
“So, when you are talking about coming to carry out war in Nigeria or face terrorists, are you doing it in cooperation with the Nigerian states or government?
“Are you coming to topple or remove Tinubu from power? There are so many questions to it, and I think the man (Trump) will not be so stupid to just bring US Army to Nigeria.” He said.
While reiterating that the threat is an empty threat, Ogundiya also claimed that the threat may borne out of a yet-to-be disclosed ulterior motive by the US.
He held that the threat might be an attempt by Trump to force President Bola Tinubu to do his biddings, considering that the US is losing grip of Africa on account of China and other countries’ influence in the continent.
“It may be to force Tinubu to dance to his tune there is competition between the United States of America and China to control Africa as a region, and it seems America is actually missing out.
“They have lost Niger and Chad. These are strategic states for the US. Apart from that, the economy of the United States of America is actually suffering for now because of the feasible role of China and other countries that are competing with America.
“I think it is beyond what people are looking at. The way I see it, it is a kind of forcing Tinubu and government of Nigeria to the table,
“We have our realities on ground. There is no doubt about that. Lives are being lost every day. Those realities are there. But does it warrant the US to come and intervene in our domestic policy?
“These are critical issues but for me I see it as an empty threat because how can you do it. Will you just come to Nigeria to bomb everywhere? Where is your target? Is it Maiduguri? Nigeria is so wide. Maiduguri as I’m talking to you now is over 1,500 kilometres from here and terrorists’ camps are here.
“In Zamfara here, terrorists’ camps are here. They have moved to the Southwest. Which terrorists’ group are you targeting?
“You can’t just move to Nigeria. Nigeria is not Afghanistan. Nigeria is not Libya. They are likely to confront so many problems, and I know they must have told them that.
“I think beyond the killings in Nigeria, Donald Trump has something that he has not disclosed to the world.” He said.
Ogundiya further accused Trump of attempt to instigate war in an already divided Nigeria.
He however accused the Ministry of Foreign Affairs over what he described as poor salesmanship of the country’s foreign policies which lacks enough domestic support.
“It is beyond the killings. It could be part of it and if care is not taken, he is trying to instigate war.
“We are already divided. If you say you are coming, the way he put it is like he is coming to protect the Christians against the Muslims, and you know what it means.
“Our crisis here has both ethnic and religious dimensions. These two they go together. That is where we must be very careful.
“However, I’ll have to blame the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. There is a serious problem there because it is so clear that where you give a carpenter’s job to a bricklayer, he is likely to fumble.
“That is the kind of problem we have here. The people who are handling our foreign affairs, they are not really doing their best.
“They are not really doing anything so serious in terms of the salesmanship of our foreign policy. Domestically, we know the foreign policy is weak because we could not garner enough support for our foreign policy.
“However, what I feel the Federal Government should be doing now is to mobilise internally and come together. They should be serious about their fight against terrorism. This is very critical.” Ogundiya noted.
The university don acknowledged that the development has created diplomatic strain between Nigeria and the US.
He however urged Tinubu utilise the resources available within his disposal and engage proficient experts, who understand international politics, in handling the situation diplomatically.
“Internally, Nigerians are having problems now. Look at the way Tinubu replied to Donald Trump.
“I know Tinubu was just trying to muscle up. You cannot contain America in the first instance. Trump is not an ordinary man because of what he is controlling.
“However, I think it should be handled diplomatically. Tinubu should engage people who understand the language of international politics, language of geopolitics.
“All these are very critical. I think he is not really engaging those people and using of the available resources that he has internally. The image of Nigeria is actually suffering.” He added.