A poll conducted by the Nigerian Human Rights Community (NHRC) comprising 134 civil liberty and community-based organisations has tipped Bola Tinubu of the ruling APC to win the presidential election.
The NHRC disclosed this at a press conference addressed by its Secretary-General, Taiwo Adeleye, in Lagos on Thursday during which its report survey was released
According to the report out of the 19365 respondents interviewed, 7940 (41%) are voting for the candidate of the APC while 5035 (26%), 4067 (21%), and 1743 (9%) are voting for the candidates of PDP, LP, and NNPP respectively,”
The report also indicated that 1162 (6%) of the respondents are rooting for the other candidates.
It noted that the election is among three candidates – Peter Obi of the Labour Party, APC’s Bola Tinubu, and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)’s Atiku Abubakar.
The NHRC poll revealed that the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Ahmed Tinubu, holds a magnificent lead and is on course to win the 2023 general election,” Adeleye said.
“The poll also confirms a two-horse race for the second position between Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party and Peter Obi of the Labour Party, while Rabiu Kwankwaso of the NNPP came a distant fourth, as all other contestants together scored an insignificant total.”
The poll also predicted an outright win for Tinubu in seventeen (17) states which include Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, Ekiti, Cross River, Kwara, Kogi, Nasarawa, Niger, Kaduna, Zamfara, Jigawa, Borno, Yobe, and Gombe.
READ ALSO:
- PDP’s Makinde Receives APC Presidential Candidate, Tinubu in Ibadan
- Criticisms Trail Buhari’s Speech as CDD, Adegboruwa, Others Accuse President of Breaching Rule of Law Over Naira Crisis
- NAFDAC Destroys Fake, Others Worth Over N326m in Nasarawa
The poll also indicated that Tinubu will secure at least 25 percent of votes in fourteen (14) other states; Imo, Ebonyi, Edo, Benue, Plateau, FCT, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Adamawa, Bauchi, and Taraba; while Atiku Abubakar is projected to win in seven states listed as Adamawa, Taraba, Sokoto, Edo, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, and Delta.
The poll predicted a victory for Kwankwaso only in his home state of Kano, while Obi is expected to win in Anambra, Enugu, Imo, Ebonyi, Abia, Benue, and Rivers.
Explaining its methodology, the group, which pointed out that the research took six months, said it employed random sampling, noting that the questionnaires were in the three major Nigerian languages, Yoruba, Igbo, and Hausa as well as pidgin.
It revealed, “From a socio-economics standpoint, religion, ethnicity, insecurity, inflation, rising poverty, and unemployment will be the determining factors during the February 25th presidential elections.
“While party loyalty, candidate integrity, political will, and track record will dominate the political reasons for voting. In addition, social media, mobile communications, and, INEC’s decision to embrace the use of technology will create more awareness and influence voters’ visions, while also curbing vote rigging and electoral violence.”
It said its deductions were based on careful consideration of the respondents’ views on religion, ethnicity, party loyalty, and integrity of the candidates, adding that respondents from the North-west, North-east and some North-central states indicated their willingness to vote based on party loyalty and religion with APC enjoying more party loyalists within a Muslim-dominated population.
It said the Southwestern states were likely to vote based on historical factors that favor the APC presidential candidate, being a former Lagos State governor with a far-reaching network and consistent political activities since 1991, grassroots campaign of the APC, incumbency factor of the APC controlled state governments in the South-west, party loyalty and ethnicity, which will equally favor the APC.
According to it, the Labour Party will enjoy an overwhelming majority in the South-east due to ethnicity and religious sentiment, while states like Plateau in the North-central might align with these sentiments to register sizeable votes for the Labour Party on the basis of religion.
The group said the study foresaw the PDP maintaining a significant presence in its traditional areas of the South-South and the two North-east states of Adamawa and Taraba while getting significant percentages in most North-west and North-east states.