The Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) has listed the states to watch and factors that will determine the outcomes of the forthcoming Governorship and State Assembly elections.
The elections are slated to hold on Saturday, March 18 having been shifted from the earlier date of March 11.
In it’s latest report titled, “Previewing Postponed Polls; Nigeria’s State Elections” which was made available to the NPO Reports on Thursday, CDD said its report provides an in-depth analysis of the six key themes likely to shape the state-level elections, whilst previewing how the contests might unfold in 14 states.
It also offers some initial projections as to factors that will likely determine the outcome and credibility of the polls.
According to CDD, the six themes identified include identity, insecurity, institutional preparedness, intra and inter-party disputes, voter participation and the question of personalities versus parties.
The key states to look out for, according to the CDD, are Rivers, Lagos, Kano, Kaduna and Sokoto adding that there will also be keenly contested races in Cross River, Delta, Enugu and Zamfara, whilst it said Adamawa could see the election of Nigeria’s first female governor.
The southeast geo-political zone represents the best chance for the Labour Party to build on the gains made during the 25 February polls, the report projects.
It went ahead to state that identity politics is more visible at the national level but the state politics is its main domain which requires a careful consideration of selecting candidates. “The presidential poll also illustrated the significance of personalities as presidential support for a candidate does not guarantee the ballot,” CDD report states
The report also notes what it called “fractious party primaries” which it said led to intra-party disputes saying “60% of contests will not have a sitting governor on the ticket, will also fuel strong inter-party competition in a number of states.”
The report said the condemnations that trailed presidential election could also impact on the poll.
“Therefore, the timely arrival of materials, improved functionality of technology and quick action against electoral officials caught being engaged in malpractice will be critical in countering suggestions that INEC is subject to the whims and caprices of some state governments,” CDD stated
It identified insecurity and election-specific disruptions, as portending dangers for the ability to conduct credible elections and increases the likelihood of inconclusive results and the need for supplementary elections.
According to CDD, “Closely contested races will likely increase election-related violence; INEC staff will be targets of intimidation and co-option from politically aligned actors; with efforts to manipulate voting processes most likely to target voter suppression in strongholds of political opponents through ballot box snatching and the destruction of election materials.
“Based on the most recent off-cycle governorship elections in Ekiti and Osun, turnout could be higher than the 29% recorded for the general election but there will be significant variation between states and geopolitical zones with the competitiveness of the race and insecurity risks being defining factors.
“Caution must also be exercised in reading too much into presidential performance in a state when seeking to ascertain the credibility of the governorship outcome.
“Our analysis of the National Assembly results shows important variation in who voters cast ballots for across the three races. This is especially key as misinformation and disinformation that amplifies divisive identity rhetoric at the state level will continue to be a feature of the electoral environment.”
The report projected that the forthcoming state and state assembly elections will intensify the political competition in more localized races, misinformation will also be a feature of the electoral environment.
It also stated that INEC staff will not only be challenged by popular perceptions of the alleged “poor performance during presidential polls” but will be the targets of intimidation and co-option from politically aligned actors.
It also expects vote trading to be more pronounced than in the 25 February election, given the localised nature of the races, the prevailing economic hardship and the announcement by the Central Bank that old naira notes remain legal tender until the end of 2023.
The governorship and state assembly poll is set to take place on Saturday, 18 March to elect governors in 28 states1 and members of all 36 state houses of assembly.