•Report by Mudasir Opeyemi
Since the return of Democracy in 1999, Nigerians have elected four different Presidents to pilot the affairs of the country.
From former President Olusegun Obasanjo who ruled from 1999 to 2007; Umaru Yar’adua who assumed office in 2007 but died in office in 2010 to Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan sworn-in in 2010 and ruled the country till May 29, 2015 when for the first time, opposition party defeated the ruling one, it has been game of wits.
With twenty-three years of unbroken civilian rule in the country, Nigerians will on February 25, 2023 elect another leader to pilot the affairs of the country.
According to the recently concluded Voters Registration and Verification by the electoral umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), a total of over ninety-three million Nigerians will elect the successor to President Muhammadu Buhari next year.
However, the 2023 election has been described in many quarters as the most tensed one considering the major gladiators jostling for the number one seat.
Altogether, there are 18 political parties contesting with just about four presidential candidates standing most prominent and on the lips of the majority of the voting population. They have been described as the frontliners.
These are Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party; Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressive Congress, Mr. Peter Obi of the Labour Party and Engr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigerian Peoples Party.
The Game of Wits
From the most prominent parties and their candidates have come some of the adroit political moves all geared towards achieving the goal of securing the Number 1 seat in the country.
Of course, the conclusion of the primaries for all the parties had culminated in the sensitive task of choosing running mates considering the various variables such as religious, ethnic and other sentiments that rule the country.
The presidential primaries that saw the emergence of Atiku Abubakar was not without its own intrigues which are not meant for the faint-hearted political players. In what had appeared a sure win for the Governor of Rivers State, Nyesome Wike, the Governor of Sokoto State, Aminu Waziri Tambuwal had stepped down to boost the chances of Atiku, pulling the carpets off the feet of Wike.
The outcome of that primary election has continued to dictate the pace of happenings in the PDP and even to a very large extent, what is happening in the APC.
Since the Tambuwal/Atiku conspiracy wrestled Wike to the grounds, all have not been the same in the PDP with five of the governors of the party forming a ‘party’ within the party to pursue an agenda at variance with that of the PDP and its presidential candidate.
Atiku’s choice of the `governor of Delta, Ifeanyi Okowa was believed to be informed and compelled by the desire to have a serving governor who has ample financial war chest who could provide enough resources to fund the election. Other considerations, if the funds issue is too outlandish to be amplified, are the facts of his education and acclaimed performance in his current assignment.
National Chairman of the party, Iyorchia Ayu had said “We looked around and we thought we have to give not just a vice president that will assist him (Atiku) but we did our homework to select a man who is highly educated, very humble, and who has done very well as a governor in his home state.
““Okowa is the most qualified running mate. It is on his own personal merit that he was selected by the party as the vice presidential candidate to Atiku Abubakar. I think Nigeria will be very lucky to have two such people who are committed to development who are detribalised who believe in uniting this country.”
Atiku himself was to later explain the rationale behind the choice of the Delta State Governor when he said “In arriving at the decision, I held wide consultations with various stakeholders in our party including our governors, national working committee, board of trustees, and other leaders to seek their inputs and their wisdom,” he said.
“In these consultations, I made clear that my running mate would have the potential to succeed me at a moment’s notice, that is, a president-in-waiting.
“In other words, the person must have the qualities to be president. The person must have an appreciation of the deep rot which our country has been put into by the rudderless APC government; understands the great suffering that most of our people are going through and the urgency of relieving them of that suffering; understand the critical importance of economic growth and development to provide our young people with jobs, hope, and a pathway to wealth.”
Till date, that choice has continued to be part of what makes the PDP unsure of its standing ahead of the 2023 general elections. Wike, who emerged second place in the exercise, had been further side-lined in the party with the choice of Okowa. The result is the crack that led to the formation of the G-5 group of governors. And the game of wits continues.
Wednesday, December 29th meeting of Tinubu with the five governors – Seyi Makinde of Oyo; Samuel Ortom of Benue, Nyesom Wike of Rivers, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu, Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia State is in furtherance of the deft moves by Tinubu to outwit his most formidable opponent in the 2023 race.
For Tinubu and the APC, getting five governors off the support base of the party remains a major masterstroke against Atiku and the PDP. And in a way, Wike’s actions since the conclusion of the primary election had been targeted at completely demarketing Atiku’s candidature with various claims of events that preceded the primaries.
Perhaps, it is the first time a governor would employ projects commissioning as a tool of political brinksmanship. Through the various events where he had invited major political players as guests, Wike had left no one in doubt over his decision to completely run Atiku’s ambition off the radar in what many have considered a payback time for the last minute below-the-belt he was made to suffer at the primaries.
For Atiku and the PDP, a major strategy to do in the APC and its presidential candidate has been to continually link Tinubu with the alleged pains being experienced by Nigerians under the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari.
Though there is a global economic crisis from Europe to America and Asia, Nigerians have continuously blamed the Buhari administration for the situation in Nigeria regardless of the trend across the globe.
Prices of stable foods such as rice, bread, fuel and others have risen as much as 100% under the administration. There has also been a noticeable increase in insecurity especially in parts of the country considered to be safer before.
All these have been heaped on the administration as indications of incompetence. And because Tinubu played a major role in the emergence of the Buhari administration in 2015, opposition parties, especially the PDP, have campaigned against him; accusing Tinubu of being the harbinger of the hardship now in the country.
Though the emergence of the candidate of the Labour Party, Mr. Peter Obi was not with the same degree of political brinksmanship as it was the case in the APC and the PDP, the search for a running mate nonetheless could not have been more tasking.
With the presidency pushed to the South-East after the emergence of Obi as the party’s presidential candidate, Obi and the LP needed a ‘masterstroke’ of a running mate who could create an inroad into the Northern part of the country and neutralise the support base of the two other leading candidates.
Not an Obi would ever admit that religion, ethnicity and other considerations ever played any major role in the final decision of who to be nominated as his running mate.
For the fact that younger generation of Nigerians appear pissed by the seeming old order that have further complicated their situations, many Nigerian youths have expressed preference for much younger people. At 47, Senate Baba Datti-Ahmed readily fits into the younger generation’s expectations of a new Nigerian vice president.
Undoubtedly, the 2023 general elections will definitely come and go but one thing that’s sure is that Nigeria will have a new set of leaders this year.