Prof Oluwatoyin Ogundipe, the Vice Chancellor of the University of Lagos who served as the Chief Returning officer for the Osun Governorship election, sealed the fate of the Osun State Governor, Gboyega Oyetola with his announcement of the final result of the election that took place on Saturday July 16.
With 375,027 scored by Oyetola as against the 403,371 recorded by his main challenger, Ademola Adeleke, it was clear that the Independent National Electoral Commission had no difficulty arriving at its decision to tell the world the incumbent had been edged out at the ballot. This was unlike 2018 when INEC was at a crossroad over the winner of the election prompting a declaration of the election as “inconclusive.” It was not until after the rerun election that that incumbent Oyetola was declared to have won the election in 2018.
Days after, post-election commentaries are striving to dissect how an incumbent was shoved aside through the ballot in a country where incumbency is still considered an advantage in electoral matters. HALIMAH OLAMIDE attempts a dissection of the exercise and its outcome:
APC’ Own Goal
The defeat of All Progressive Congress’ Oyetola could be considered an own goal in Osun given the general belief that he was not brought down simply because of the electoral strength of the Peoples Democratic Party.
The internal crisis with the APC in Osun is seen as major reason the party lost the election.
How did the division start? NPO Reports gathered that shortly after the election of Oyetola in 2018, rumour-mill began to have it of a disagreement between Oyetola and the outgoing governor, Rauf Aregbesola.
It was said that some people who had worked closely with Oyetola and had come under a new grouping and caucus called Ileri Oluwa, accused Aregbesola of not being interested in the candidature and therefore, the victory of Oyetola. Aregbesola, knowing what he had to put in into election of his would be successor, was reportedly miffed by the rumour to the extent he reported the matter to former Interim National Chairman of the party, Chief Bisi Akande, seen as an elder of the party and of the state and a stabilizer of sort in the party’s affairs.
Despite that, the rumour grew more wings and flew to unexpected quarters permeating the entire strata of the party. The result was a polarization of the party down to the ward level across the state.
From early 2019 when it was said that this schism had crept into the party, none of the peace efforts yielded fruits as things degenerated gradually till this year, the election year.
The division had, in June 2021, led to the formation of an umbrella caucus under which those allegedly edged out by Oyetola could be accommodated pending the resolution of the party.
‘The Osun Progressives (TOP) was actually formed to hold aggrieved members of the party together to avert them being poached by the opposition,” said Yemi Abolusodun, a chieftain of the party.
NPO Reports gathered that the birth of TOP was not the idea of Aregbesola but that of those who were left back in Osun who felt the only way their political future could be secured was to form a body. They took their idea to the Minister of Interior who was said to have had no choice but t back them since their main objective is to reposition the party and make it a veritable vehicle for electoral victory.
The group held its meetings every Thursday and made the Oranmiyan House, the campaign office of Aregbesola its meeting point.
In February this year, the Oranmiyan House came under attacks of gunmen who shot into the building. It was the second time such attack was taking place. All these continued until the time of the local government and state congresses of the party where parallel congresses were held. Effectively, APC had broken into two in the state with each having its full executive committee members at all levels. This situation persisted till the party went into election last weekend.
Abandoned Populist Programmes
Many are of the opinion that the administration left out or did not carry on with some populist programmes of the previous administration which indirectly galvanized the people and made them endlessly attached to the party. Some of these programmes include the Osun Youths Empowerment Scheme, the Osun school feeding programmes, public engagements programmes such as monthly “Walk-to-Live, a physical fitness programme always led by the governor. There was also the Gbangba Dekun, a feedback mechanism where the Governor faced the citizens and directly answered questions on state of the state. This was a quarterly event and held at the headquarters of each of the nine federal constituencies in the state.
There was also the Ogbeni-Till-Daybreak, another public engagement and enlightenment programme that used to hold from late night till the early hours of the following day. With direct questions by attendees, phone-in and social media messages, the Governor was challenged on state matters.
Disputed Primaries for Legislative Houses Flag bearers
With the APC effectively polarized, the Ileri-Oluwa faction backed by the Governor had held the primaries to choose flag bearers for the 2023 general elections including candidates for the senatorial, House of Representatives and State constituency elections.
Party stalwarts alleged that even within the Ileri-Oluwa caucus, allegations of high-handedness became rife. In most cases, the party leadership was accused of picking names of candidates regardless of how they performed in the primaries.
It was also gathered that some party leaders, sensing danger, advised that few elective slots be ceded to the Aregbesola faction of the party. Indeed, it was learnt that the National Chairman, Abdulahi Adamu, had proposed that at least one senatorial, two House of Representatives and about 10 House of Assembly tickets be allowed to go to the faction in order to accommodate the aggrieved party members so the APC could approach the election with a united front and strength. This option was said to have been rebuffed with some close to the Governor saying that the party could go to the poll with or without Aregbesola and his loyalists.
For weeks after the exercise, the Osun chapter of the APC did not submit its list of candidates to the national secretariat of the party creating room for allegations of imposition and manipulations. Many of those who considered themselves victims of the allegedly manipulated primaries vowed to do the party in and ensure that the governor is not re-elected.
Election Time Flaws
Many say signs ought to have been there for the government and the leadership of the party to know that the end had come with the reactions of the residents of the state capital on the day of the final rally in Osogbo. The convoy conveying Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and the governor and others were said to have passed through notable areas like Ajegunle, Ota Ofun and others without getting acknowledged cheers.
What was also aimed at getting boost for the campaign later turned to be a public relations disaster with the invitation of controversial singer, Habib Okikiola (Portable) whose appearance generated a lot of negative publicity for the governor. The singer would later go ahead to accuse those who contracted him for the job of cheating him over his pay.
His video has gone viral creating even a post-election image crisis for the governor and his administration.
Money Disappeared
A day to the election, representatives of the party were said to have been told to come down to Osogbo to be mobilized for the election. However, NPO Reports gathered that when many of the agents saw the amount of money to be deployed in each council area, they reportedly complained over how they suffered care by the government with claims that the state was not buoyant.
“We were therefore surprised to see such funds being deployed for the re-election of the governor,” said one of the agents who came from Ile-Ife.
Portable: When Influencer Brings Bad Luck
The invitation of a maverick singer, Habib Okikiola (Portable) is believed by many to have come at a wrong time. The singer was invited to boost the campaign of the governor and he moved around the state capital followed by a horde of street urchins and some APC faithful. His conduct, especially hyped further by the climbing of the Awolowo statue at the Nelson Mandela Freedom Park was seen as an act of desecration.
As if that was not enough, the artiste went online to tell the world he was deceived into campaigning for Oyetola while also alleging that those who contracted him for the appearance short-changed him with the amount he was paid.
In all, it is believed that with the division in the APC, there was no way the party could have made it to victory given the widespread support the PDP candidate had garnered.
The post-election lamentations among party members have already exposed what roles were played by different leaders of the party and how those have brought down the party after 12 years that ends in November 27, 2022.
For now, APC in Osun can only go back to the drawing board to examine at what point the rain started beating it in order to plot its way into a more positive future.